PC
PC CONNECTION INC (CNXN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- CNXN delivered Q1 2025 net sales of $701.0M (+10.9% y/y), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.51 (+2% y/y), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.60 (+20% y/y). Revenue and EPS were driven by double‑digit growth in notebooks/desktops and datacenter modernization; gross margin compressed 50 bps to 18.2% .
- Strong estimate beat: Q1 2025 revenue beat consensus by ~8.5% and “Primary EPS” (S&P’s tracked EPS) beat by ~45% on adjusted basis; GAAP EPS of $0.51 also exceeded typical expectations. The Board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.15 and added $50M to the buyback, lifting authorization to $170M (about $50.5M available post increase) .
- Segment highlights: Public Sector +54.7% y/y (federal +$40.1M) at lower margin due to large project rollouts; Enterprise +5.4% y/y; Business Solutions +1.0% y/y with margin expansion of +170 bps .
- Management cited backlog at a near two‑year high, tariff timing driving mixed customer behavior, and AI PC momentum as catalysts for 2025; they aim to outperform U.S. IT market growth by ~200 bps and see mid‑ to high single‑digit top‑line growth for 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Devices and modernization drove growth: “double digit growth for digital workplace solutions… as well as double-digit growth for datacenter modernization” contributing to adjusted EPS +20% y/y .
- Segment execution: Business Solutions margin expanded 170 bps to 25.3% on favorable customer/product mix; Enterprise advanced technologies up 8% y/y; Public Sector revenue up 54.7% (federal +$40.1M) .
- Strategic capital return: dividend raised to $0.15 and buyback authorization increased by $50M to $170M; 697,069 shares repurchased for $44.8M in Q1 .
What Went Wrong
- Margin compression: consolidated gross margin fell 50 bps to 18.2%; Public Sector margin declined 240 bps to 13.6% due to lower‑margin large rollouts; Enterprise margin down 90 bps to 14.2% .
- Operating cash flow used: -$52.4M in Q1 as inventory was staged ahead of anticipated tariffs (+$56.7M) and accounts payable declined (-$27.0M) .
- Tariffs and macro uncertainty: uneven demand as some customers accelerated purchases ahead of tariffs while others delayed spend; management highlighted suppliers’ limited ability to rapidly reconfigure supply chains .
Financial Results
Headline P&L (GAAP and Adjusted)
Notes:
- Operating income excluding severance was $17.5M (2.5% margin) in Q1 2025, vs. GAAP OI $14.5M (2.1% margin) .
Segment Revenue and Margin
KPIs and Cash Flow
Guidance Changes
No formal numeric revenue/EPS guidance ranges were provided; management framed outlook via qualitative targets and market outperformance .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO framing on demand/mix: “double digit growth for digital workplace solutions… and datacenter modernization… contributed to improved profitability resulting in 20% growth in adjusted earnings per share” .
- Backlog/outlook: “our backlog at the end of Q1 was at its highest level in nearly 2 years… we can outperform the U.S. IT market growth by 200 basis points” .
- AI themes: “AI trust and AI return on investment… are at the forefront… Both areas are core focus points for our CNXN Helix organization” .
- Segment details: Business Solutions margin expansion; Public Sector strength at lower margins due to large projects; Enterprise margin pressure from lower license fees .
Q&A Highlights
- Demand cadence and tariffs: March carried ~34% of quarterly revenue; mix of pre‑tariff buying and cautious spending; inventory staged for price protection .
- Outlook color: Top‑line mid‑ to high single‑digit growth for 2025; SG&A mid single‑digit growth; savings from cost actions to emerge from Q2 .
- Vertical funnel: Robust large enterprise funnel; federal strong; SMB more cautious with Windows upgrades on existing devices .
- M&A: Pursuing tuck‑in acquisitions to expand solutions and enter new markets; “powder is dry” despite rate environment .
Estimates Context
Notes:
- S&P’s “Primary EPS” tracked adjusted diluted EPS of $0.60 in Q1 2025, whereas GAAP diluted EPS was $0.51 .
- Q1 2025 was a significant beat on both revenue and EPS; Q4 2024 missed both; Q2 2025 (subsequent period) shows mixed: slight revenue miss and EPS beat.
- Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Beat-driven upside: Strong Q1 beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, with device and modernization tailwinds likely to support near-term estimate revisions upward for core KPIs.
- Mix‑driven margin dynamics: Expect continued gross margin pressure from the device refresh mix; watch Enterprise license fee trends and Public Sector project margins .
- Execution levers: Cost actions (~$5M annualized savings) and SG&A discipline should begin to flow through from Q2, partially offsetting margin compression .
- Capital return supports TSR: Higher dividend ($0.15) and expanded buyback authorization ($170M total) provide downside support amid macro volatility .
- Tariff uncertainty: Near‑term demand is uneven; CNXN’s staged inventory and customer programs aim to mitigate pricing impacts—monitor inventory/working capital and OCF .
- AI PC cycle: Recognitions and AI capabilities (Helix, Intel AI PC award) position CNXN to capture share in the device refresh and on‑prem AI build‑outs over 2025–2026 .
- Backlog as a leading indicator: Backlog near two‑year highs and robust enterprise funnel underpin mid‑ to high single‑digit 2025 growth aspirations and market outperformance .